How to Spot Value Bets or Banker of the Day

If you enjoy betting on soccer (also called football in many countries), you’ve probably heard the phrase “value bet.” But what does it really mean? And how can you find one using statistics?

Don’t worry if you’re not a math genius or a stats expert. In this article, we’ll break it all down in a fun, simple way. We’ll show you how to use stats like expected goals (xG), team form, and average goals per game to find smart bets. Plus, you’ll get some cool stats and our “Banker of the Day” tip at the end!

banker of the day

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet is a bet where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than they should be, based on the actual chances of the event happening.

Let’s make it simple with an example:

  • You think Team A has a 60% chance to win.

  • But the bookmaker gives odds that suggest they have a 40% chance.

That means the odds are better than the real chance — and that’s a value bet.

Over time, betting on these kinds of odds gives you the best chance to win more than you lose.

Why Use Stats for Betting?

Soccer is a game full of surprises. But with the right stats, you can make better guesses about what might happen.

Stats help you:

  • See which team is stronger

  • Find teams that are underrated

  • Spot teams on hot streaks or cold slumps

  • Predict how many goals might be scored

Let’s look at three key stats that can help you spot value bets.

1. Expected Goals (xG):

Expected Goals, or xG, is one of the best tools in modern soccer.

It tells you how many goals a team should have scored based on the chances they created. Not every shot is equal — a tap-in is much easier than a shot from 30 yards.

How to Use xG:

  • If a team has high xG but didn’t score, they were unlucky.

  • If a team scores a lot but has low xG, they might be over-performing.

This helps you spot teams that are better or worse than the final score shows.

Example:

Last weekend, Team B lost 0-1, but their xG was 2.1 compared to Team C’s 0.8. That means Team B was unlucky and might be a good value bet in their next game.

2. Recent Form:

This is simply how a team has played in their last 5 or 10 games. It shows:

  • Wins, draws, and losses

  • Goals scored and conceded

  • Home vs. away performance

How to Use Recent Form:

If a big team like Real Madrid has lost 3 games in a row, and they’re facing a smaller team that’s won 4 of their last 5, form might be more important than reputation.

Bookmakers often still favor big teams, which can give you a value opportunity.

3. Average Goals Per Game:

Goals are what betting markets like Over/Under 2.5 or Both Teams To Score (BTTS) are based on.

How to Use Goal Stats:

  • If two teams average over 3 goals per match, the Over 2.5 Goals market might be worth betting on.

  • If both teams have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 matches, the BTTS – No market could have value.

One-Time Soccer Stats (This Week):

Let’s take a look at some real stats from recent matches:

  • Manchester City has an average xG of 2.4 per game this season.

  • Napoli has gone 7 matches in a row without a draw.

  • Bayern Munich scored 16 goals in their last 5 home games.

  • Brighton matches have had both teams scoring in 8 out of their last 10.

Use these kinds of stats when making your decisions!

Spotting Value with Odds:

Now let’s talk about odds. You can use this simple formula to check if a bet has value:

(Your estimated probability) x (Bookmaker’s odds) > 1 = Value

Example:

You believe Team D has a 70% chance to win. Bookmaker gives odds of 2.00.

  • 70% = 0.70

  • 0.70 × 2.00 = 1.4 → That’s a value bet!

If the number is over 1, that’s a good sign.

Banker of the Day:

Today’s Tip (April 10, 2025):

Match: Bayern Munich vs. Augsburg
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Why? Bayern has averaged 3.2 goals per game at home. Augsburg has conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches. Over 2.5 goals looks very strong here.

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Extra Tips for Beginners:

Here are a few bonus tips that every smart soccer bettor should remember:

  1. Don’t bet with your heart – Your favorite team might not be the best bet.

  2. Avoid chasing losses – One bad day doesn’t mean you need to bet more tomorrow.

  3. Stick to one or two markets – Focus on what you understand best.

  4. Track your bets – Write down your bets and results to learn over time.

  5. Use multiple bookmakers – Get the best odds available.

Wrap Up:

Now you know what a value bet is and how to find one using simple but powerful stats like expected goals, recent form, goal averages and soccer stats. The key is to think like a detective — look beyond the final score and into the stats that show the truth.

Next time you’re checking odds, use these tools to decide if a bet is really worth it. And don’t forget to check out our “Banker of the Day” tip for a confident pick backed by numbers!